13 years have passed since Bitcoin was first created. Back then, the only people who were interested in Bitcoin were coders and scholars. Today, there are more beginners in crypto than ever.
However, the Bitcoin we know today is vastly different from when it first started. More crypto beginners have at least heard of the term “Bitcoin” and are exposed to terms like “NFT” on social media.
In reality, it is tough to predict the price of Bitcoin since it is so volatile. However, it has not stopped people from predicting its price.
Let’s take a look at some famous Bitcoin predictions that were made in the past, and see if they hold water.
1. Hal Finney, first recipient of Bitcoin from Satoshi
Prediction: US$10 million per coin
While it is easy to buy Bitcoin on crypto exchanges these days, it was difficult back when Bitcoin first started.
In 2009, the first-ever Bitcoin transaction took place, with Hal Finney receiving Bitcoins directly from its creator Satoshi Nakamoto. With his knowledge of computer science, he was able to understand the significance of Bitcoin.
To reach Finney’s US$10 million prediction, Bitcoin has to become the world’s dominant payment system.
With this huge demand for Bitcoin, there will not be enough Bitcoins as there is a limit of 21 million Bitcoins in circulation. The price of Bitcoin will then explode and reach US$1 million.
While his prediction sounds reasonable, his biggest assumption was that all the cash in the world will be replaced by Bitcoin. No more cash, just Bitcoin.
No one knows if this will take place. Yet, we see more countries adopting Bitcoin recently. For example, El Salvador has adopted Bitcoin as an official currency. Other countries like Malaysia and Switzerland are also following suit.
Perhaps, his assumption is not far off after all.
2. ARK Invest’s bold Bitcoin prediction in 2022
Prediction: More than US$1 million by 2030
What do famous institutional investors like Cathie Wood think about Bitcoin’s price?
According to Ark Invest’s latest report, Bitcoin could exceed US$1 million in less than 10 years.
ARK Invest usually conducts its research using data and industry trends based on their yearly report.
Their reason for this prediction is that investors are “HODL-ing”, which is to buy and hold on to a coin for a long time. ARK Invest’s data shows that investors are more focused on Bitcoin’s long-term value.
Bitcoin’s long-term applications include providing a remittance network or acting as a reserve currency. Companies like Tesla have already been holding their reserves in Bitcoin.
By analysing the market size of these use cases, it gives us a more systematic estimate of Bitcoin’s potential price.
3. John McAfee: Iconic prediction with an unusual bet
Prediction: US$1 million per coin by 2020
When talking about Bitcoin price predictions, we have to mention John McAfee’s wild predictions. You may know his name from the anti-virus programme McAfee.
McAfee is certainly eccentric. According to Ethereum creator Vitalik Butalik, John McAfee’s claim was the worst bull prediction. As we laugh at overconfident predictions that went horribly wrong, we can deter people from making ridiculous claims like McAfee’s.
In 2017, McAfee made a big bet that Bitcoin’s price would hit US$1 million by the end of 2020 – if not, he would consume his genitals on TV.
When 2020 rolled in, he backtracked on his prediction, not expecting anyone to believe such an absurd claim. Rather than feeling betrayed, many investors were amused instead.
Regardless, he has become quite an icon among crypto fans.
4. “Bitcoin is dead” – A common claim since 2011
While optimistic predictions are fun to explore, skepticism is vital for the success of any revolutionary technology.
When the Internet was first introduced, it was met with much denial. In today’s world, the Internet has become essential. Bitcoin is no exception, especially to those who are unfamiliar with it.
“Bitcoin is Dead” was created to tell Bitcoin’s story and progress through the lenses of its most notable critics. To tell the story of Bitcoin, we need to include both critics and supporters.
When Bitcoin was worth about US$17 in 2011, a Forbes article predicted that it was the end for Bitcoin.
When Bitcoin was worth about US$4,000 in 2019, the most popular prediction was that Bitcoin is going to hit zero.
Despite its critics, Bitcoin is still in favour by many institutional investors today. Since the peak of negative news in 2017, there have been lesser of such news reported. In addition, with more unique addresses and higher adoption, Bitcoin is still thriving.
5. Shark Tank’s “Mr Wonderful” Kevin O’Leary
Prediction: “A giant nothing-burger”
Not everyone is optimistic about Bitcoin. One of the investors on Shark Tank, Kevin O’Leary, thought Bitcoin was a “nothing burger”. Even back in 2019, he didn’t believe that there is any value in Bitcoin.
Despite his past pessimism toward Bitcoin, he actively invested in crypto in 2021. In fact, close to 3 per cent of his entire portfolio is in crypto. He revealed that he has a large portion of Ethereum, while owning other coins such as Bitcoin.
When investors reconsider their outlook on Bitcoin, they may decide to invest as well.
6. Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak chips in on Bitcoin’s price
Prediction: US$100,000
Apple’s legendary co-founder, Steve Wozniak, has expressed his opinion on Bitcoin’s future price. Based on the growing interest in crypto and his intuition, he expects Bitcoin price to eventually hit US$100,000.
To him, Bitcoin is unique because it is designed with mathematics in mind. No one controls Bitcoin – not by a known creator or by a company. It runs purely on mathematics.
It’s impossible to predict Bitcoin’s price
With the extreme volatility in Bitcoin, it is almost impossible to predict its prices. Not even famous investors, esteemed engineers, or Bitcoin enthusiasts can accurately pinpoint its prices.
Regardless, it is still interesting to look back at the iconic price predictions and see how far we have come.
When US$1,000 was the all-time high Bitcoin price in 2013, the price of US$10,000 seemed absurd. As such, Bitcoin reaching its new all-time high of US$69,000 just last year seemed like a miracle.
Despite all the doubt that surrounded Bitcoin over the decade, Bitcoin is still thriving today. Perhaps the US$100,000, or even the million-dollar predictions, are not so crazy after all.
Considering that Bitcoin still has the potential to grow, it is not too late to learn more as a beginner in crypto.
If you are looking for more crypto beginner tips, Luno has a beginner-friendly learning portal where you can get all your crypto 101 questions answered. You can learn more about the origins of Bitcoins and the difference between Bitcoin and Ethereum – all packed in bite-sized videos for your easy viewing.
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