We’ll be seeing more deaths than births among Singaporeans in about 10 years, according to The Straits Times‘ findings.
“If (or when) this happens, Singapore’s population would shrink without immigration,” the report stated. This was following Minister Indranee Rajah’s response to a parliamentary question on September 9.
Based on the current trends, it’s believed that the number of citizen deaths could exceed the number of citizen births in the first half of the 2030s.
For context, citizen births refer to babies with at least one Singaporean parent. These individuals automatically gain Singapore citizenship at birth.
It’s not entirely surprising as Singapore’s birth rates continue to decline for the fourth consecutive year. In fact, it had been declining for nearly a decade save for a momentary spike in 2015 and 2019.
At the same time, Singapore is growing to become an ageing population. There will be a significant increase in the number of individuals above the age of 65 in comparison to the younger population.
This is based on the data shared by the National Population and Talent Division.
The statistics show that those aged 65 and above make up 19.1% of the citizen population in 2023, and it’s projected to increase to 24.1% in 2030. In contrast, citizens aged 19 and below were at 19.9% last year but is estimated to reduce to 19.3% by 2030.
Should this projection be correct, it would place Singapore in the same “demographic time bomb” that’s being faced by countries like the UK and Japan.
The impact of having an ageing population include:
- A strain on public finances as age-related spending (like healthcare and pensions) will increase while the tax base shrinks
- A shortage in labour forces and workers for high-skilled jobs
- Inflation can be expected to rise as a certain group consumes more goods and services than it produces
Measures to counteract the negative effects of having an ageing population would be to increase immigration of foreign workers.
The Ministry of Manpower recorded that the foreign workforce numbers have been steadily increasing since 2019, standing at 1,545,200 in June this year.
All that said, Indranee explained that these projections are intended to illustrate the change in population that could happen if certain demographic assumptions prevailed over a period of time.
These assumptions may or may not be realised, she added.
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Featured Image Credit: Filbert Kuong from SRN’s SG Photobank