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At the World Economic Forum 2025, which is currently taking place in Davos, Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam presented his observations, predictions and prescriptions ahead of the looming jobs crisis that is about to sweep the globe in the coming years.
Within the coming decade, about 1.2 billion people—a wave without precedent, according to President Tharman—will enter the global workforce in developing countries, but only 400 million jobs are predicted to be created in that same period of time.
This leaves a gap of 800 million jobs at a time where even developed labour markets are getting squeezed by AI-driven automation, which is threatening to displace workers from some of the better paid positions.
With millions underemployed or outright unemployed, “We know the consequences,” said the Singapore President. “They’re not just about economics; they’re fundamentally social, political, and they will shape the new international disorder.“
President Tharman did offer his ideas regarding solutions to the problem that’s about to affect us all in some way.
He spoke of education starting as early as 3 years of age, preparing children to become productive, adaptable adults in the future. He also pointed out the disparities between academic education and technical requirements of the workplace, which hold many workers back in their careers and implore governments and employers alike to ensure that AI complements human skills instead of merely copying them.
All of this, however, is universal advice, and Singapore is already well ahead in these areas.
But is it enough to protect it from the problems caused by the sudden flood of cheap manpower? Probably not.
Inward and outward pressure on Singapore
If the predictions pan out as they are being presented today, they are likely to trigger considerable turbulence for Singapore workers as well, quite regardless of how well-educated and prepared they are.
The fact that 800 million people may struggle to find a job doesn’t mean that those young newcomers from developing countries are the only ones who will be affected. The reality is that the entire 1.2 billion will compete globally to fill those newly created 400 million jobs in the next ten years.
But, as we know, if supply vastly outstrips demand, prices fall. This may lead to the creation of more jobs at a considerably lower pay. And those that can be employed much more cheaply are also most likely to attract employers.
Some of it may happen in Asia, but mostly west of Singapore.
It will not influence the city-state directly—after all, it’s far too developed for its workers to be threatened by population growth occurring in places like Nigeria. However, by undermining millions of lower-paid jobs, the centre of gravity of global manufacturing may begin shifting away from East Asia to Africa, Middle East or India.
This is further exacerbated by the conflicts between Beijing and the West, which have already led companies to diversify away from China—and Singapore, after all, owes much of its success to being favourably located on some of the busiest trade routes connecting the current adversaries.
It is a hub for logistics and business, attracting billions of dollars in investment precisely because it’s a gateway to East Asia, which is still the world’s factory.
But Singapore’s location is not unique. Not even regionally and certainly not globally—and those global rivals are already competing for money and brainpower. Easier access to a growing pool of cheap labour could be their critical advantage in the coming years.
The African continent, after all, is much closer to both Europe and America, the largest and wealthiest consumer markets on the planet, and even India is closer to both heading west rather than east (never stopping in Singapore).
Apple’s iPhones are already made in India, and if Africa can begin producing goods at scale at a much lower cost given the surge in available manpower, who is going to keep investing in the Far East under the shadow of Chinese influence, in countries whose populations are dying out?
In fact, China itself is already making inroads into the continent to control the future of manufacturing as well as the wealth of resources found under its soil.
It is no surprise, then, that Dubai is already the world’s busiest airport for international travel, with Changi only coming in 4th. The Gulf conveniently sits right in the centre of the world’s landmass, offering the quickest, one-stop access to all continents.
This is why, in addition to the outward pressure on Singapore due to shifting investment flows and changing manufacturing landscape, inward pressure may follow, with companies beginning to ask if the expense and hurdles required to clear to come to the city-state are still worth it.
Safe, rich, wealthy, and largely tax-free monarchies of the Arabian Gulf are offering many of the same benefits that Singapore does—with a few extra perks and plenty of land for construction.
Until recently, they lacked access to sufficiently trained manpower available locally and attractive business destinations on their periphery that they could become the trusted gateway to, in the same way Singapore is to the Far East.
The former is being addressed by quite remarkable openness to immigration, in contrast to years of isolation and bureaucracy which once prevented expatriates from settling there (already upwards of 90% of inhabitants of UAE or Qatar are foreigners, and more are welcome to settle).
The latter, meanwhile, may soon solve itself, as the region stretching from India to West Africa fills with people looking for jobs.
The capital seeking to employ them will need a trustworthy hub to operate from—and it’s unlikely to be Singapore given the location.
The coming surge of cheap labour may cause a crisis for some, but it can be a chance for others. As a result of this geoeconomic shift, Singaporeans may soon be forced to adapt to, perhaps, fewer opportunities than they’ve become accustomed to over the years.
Featured Image Credit: World Economic Forum
