Disclaimer: Opinions expressed below belong solely to the author.
This year’s General Election is likely the most unpredictable in history, following an eventful term since the last contest in 2020.
It also marks the start of the post-Lee era, as Lee Hsien Loong steps down. Now serving his final years in politics as a Senior Minister, he has no relatives or children expected to enter national politics.
However, the planned succession did not go as anticipated—DPM Heng Swee Keat, originally set to take over, stepped aside at the last minute due to health concerns.
This triggered an unexpected internal search, ultimately leading to Lawrence Wong being chosen to head the 4G team. But how the party will perform during the upcoming election under his leadership remains uncertain.
While the People’s Action Party has always had capable ministers and political appointees, it has produced fewer leaders who seem like natural choices for the top job.
Lawrence Wong was not an obvious pick either, but since taking office last year, he has grown into the role.
If he can lead the party to a strong victory, he may emerge as a more resilient prime minister than any before him.
Not a chink in the armour
While Lee Kuan Yew and Lee Hsien Loong were widely popular in Singapore, their leadership was not without controversy. The lasting impact of past disputes has shaped public perception of the PAP, influencing local politics to this day.
Goh Chok Tong is often seen in hindsight as a bridge between father and son, but the past six decades have been largely defined by the Lees—bringing both advantages and challenges for the ruling party.
Opposition supporters continue to reference past government actions and statements as reasons to back alternative parties. The ongoing public debate over the Oxley Road family home only adds to the discussion.
With Lawrence Wong now leading the government, however, that legacy is less dominant. He was not involved in politics when most of these controversies occurred and has no personal stake in them.
His track record is remarkably clean—there are no known missteps or questionable actions. While he may not be the most forceful or charismatic leader, he is neither seen as divisive nor unscrupulous.
So far, he has avoided major errors, presenting an image of steady, technocratic competence—an appealing quality, especially in a world that is becoming increasingly polarized.
Is it 1991 or 2001 all over again?
Many will likely compare this to when Goh Chok Tong took over from Lee Kuan Yew, leading to the PAP’s worst result at the time—just under 61% of the vote—as more Singaporeans felt comfortable giving the opposition a larger share.
With Lee Hsien Loong now on the sidelines, will voters be more inclined to support fresh faces from other parties?
Or, in an increasingly uncertain world—especially in the midst of the Trump 2.0 era—will they rally around Lawrence Wong’s calm and steady leadership, much like they did with Goh Chok Tong in 2001, when the elections took place just months after the 9/11 attacks?
I lean toward the latter, largely because while PM Wong enters the race with a clean slate, the same cannot be said for his opposition.
The Workers’ Party, once keen to claim the moral high ground, has been dented by past controversies, from the Raeesah Khan scandal, which continues to cast a shadow over Pritam Singh (regardless of his appeal outcome), to the affair involving Leon Perera and Nicole Seah.
This may make it harder for them to position themselves as the clear alternative.
Meanwhile, the Progress Singapore Party may soon have its fifth secretary-general in five years as it is heading into an internal leadership election.
NCMP Leong Mun Wai is reportedly considering a bid to reclaim the role, despite previously stepping down after receiving a POFMA correction order for sharing a false story about a couple allegedly being denied government assistance.
Smaller opposition parties, such as the SDP, PVP, and Reform Party, have also faced POFMA orders in recent years for spreading falsehoods, showing that the PAP’s competitors are not without their own missteps.
While the ruling party has had its share of controversies, it enters this election with a refreshed image under PM Wong. In contrast, opposition parties are largely fielding familiar faces, some of whom are still dealing with past controversies that may not be easily forgotten.
Sink or swim
Lawrence Wong’s first election as Prime Minister is unlike any before. The range of possible outcomes is wide—from losing more GRCs to reducing the opposition’s presence to mostly NCMP seats.
If the PAP’s vote share dips below 60%, Wong’s position will be weakened, leaving him vulnerable to stronger opposition scrutiny in Parliament.
But if he can maintain the status quo or even reclaim ground—such as Sengkang GRC, which was narrowly lost last time—he could become difficult to challenge in future elections.
Unless he becomes embroiled in a major controversy, a voter rejection of current opposition leaders would leave their parties struggling, potentially undoing decades of progress.
With few well-groomed successors, the opposition may find it hard to compete against Wong’s steady, competent, and controversy-free leadership.
GE2025 could be a “now or never” moment not just for the PAP but for its rivals as well. And if Wong passes this test, he may secure not only this term but a political career spanning 15 years or more.
- Read other articles we’ve written on GE2025 here.
- Read other articles we’ve written on Singapore’s current affairs here.
Featured Image Credit: Ministry of Digital Development and Information
