Investor Ray Dalio shares his thoughts on US, UK, China, and the new global world order
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has studied the rise and fall of empires in the last 500 years, and he’s delivered his assessment of the future of the United States as a global superpower.
“These evolutions always take place, and they take place in a certain way,” explained the billionaire investor. He pointed out that 60% of Americans currently have a reading level of below the sixth grade. This allegedly prevents them from being productive, a basic prerequisite of a prosperous and successful society.
There also exists the top 10%, who are “doing great.” The reminder is that these two groups are vastly different, and should not be generalised into the entire US as a power. In fact, there is already a conflict between these two disparate circles.
“Are you watching the war that’s happening between these [two groups]?” asks Dalio.
When asked if the US could lose its grip as a dominant power in the next 50 to 100 years, Dalio had a straightforward answer: “Yeah. More than conceivable.”
His observations were revealed on a broad-ranging conversation with Steven Bartlett on the podcast The Diary of a CEO, released on Sept 11, 2025.
Ray Dalio’s Five Forces that shape the global economy
The unrest falls under the force of internal conflict, part of Ray Dalio’s own theory of the “five forces” that collectively drive the economy. Dalio’s approach emphasises that these forces are interconnected and influence one another, creating a dynamic system of booms and busts.
1. Debt/Money/Economic Force
This relates to the creation and management of debt and credit, as well as the performance of a country’s money and economic systems. It includes the credit cycle, which significantly impacts market trends and overall economic prosperity. Dalio views these cycles as fundamental drivers of boom and bust periods.
2. Internal Conflict Force
This refers to the stability within a country, including the level of political polarisation, internal conflict, and the public’s ability to cooperate. High levels of division and a breakdown of social cohesion can destabilise a nation and hinder its economic and political progress.
3. External Conflict Force
This focuses on the international landscape. It involves the rise and fall of great powers, major rivalries between nations, and the overall structure of the world order. Shifts in global power dynamics and international relations can profoundly affect a country’s economic standing and security.
4. Climate and Natural Disasters
This includes significant environmental and natural events that impact societies and economies. Events like droughts, floods, and pandemics can act as major shocks, disrupting supply chains, causing economic hardship, and accelerating existing societal trends.
5. Technological Change
This refers to the development of new technologies, such as artificial intelligence, that drive productivity improvements and transform various aspects of life. Technological advancements are a long-term driver of growth and can reshape entire industries and economies.
The changing world order
In Dalio’s opinion, the US is already facing issues with three of the five forces: Debt, internal conflict, and external conflict.
But who does the US face in external conflict?
“In the news, you just saw the meetings of Xi, Putin, and Modi,” said Dalio. “It should be pretty clear how the sides are lining up.”
What happens next, is that the existing system breaks. Citing the fall of Roman Republic and rise of Caesar, Dalio says that deep distrust in the legal and parliamentary system tends to result in a strong leader seizing power and gaining control of uncertainty.
This drastic change may seem far-fetched, but history has shown itself of being extremely capable of repeating itself.
“People always think that the future would be a slightly modified version of the present, and its not,” reminds Dalio.
- Watch the full episode of The Diary of A CEO with Ray Dalio here.
Featured Image Credit: The Diary of a CEO / YouTube
